What happens next for the Vikings without Justin Jefferson?
The Minnesota Vikings are 1-4 this season, despite Justin Jefferson’s NFL-leading stretch. How much worse could it get now that the wide receiver will miss four games, possibly more, due to a strained right hamstring on injured reserve?
That’s the question reverberating throughout Minnesota on Tuesday, where Jefferson has emerged as one of the league’s top players. Even before the severity of his injury was revealed, ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) predicted that the Vikings would be twice as likely to earn a top-10 pick in the 2024 draft (41.5%) as they were to make the playoffs (20.3%). Without Jefferson and the benefits his presence provides to other players, the Vikings will be forced to consider some existential questions about this.
No matter how the Vikings adjust, it will be easier to defend their offense than it had been. Moreover, Jefferson can’t return until after the Oct. 31 trade deadline, and his absence must be seen in the context of the Vikings’ failed effort this summer to sign him to a long-term contract extension. Finally, three prominent starters — quarterback Kirk Cousins, linebacker Danielle Hunter and receiver K.J. Osborn — are on expiring contracts and therefore are potential trade targets.
Let’s consider the short- and long-term impact of Jefferson’s injury as the Vikings try to pull themselves together for a stretch of games that on paper is more forgiving than the one they just completed.
How long will Jefferson be out?
Injured reserve rules dictate he will miss at least four games: road contests at the Chicago Bears, Green Bay Packers and Atlanta Falcons along with a home game against the San Francisco 49ers. The earliest he could play is in Week 10 against the New Orleans Saints, but there is no guarantee he will.
Why not?
On Monday, coach Kevin O’Connell made clear the Vikings do not want Jefferson back on the field until he is fully recovered. “We’re going to do what’s best for Justin and make sure we give him the treatment and plan that is a big-picture positive for him,” O’Connell said.
Recovery times from soft tissue injuries vary, but it stands to reason that a receiver with a significant hamstring injury would struggle to maintain effectiveness. The current four-week time frame is best viewed as a function of the minimum duration of an IR stay rather than as an estimate of his recovery process.
Is the fickle nature of hamstrings the only reason for the uncertain time frame?
Frankly, no. Jefferson’s contract remains an unresolved issue. He and the Vikings tried and failed to reach common ground on a contract extension this summer, leaving Jefferson to receive a base salary of $2.4 million this season and $19.7 million in 2024 if there is no agreement before then.
To be fair, Jefferson insisted that his mindset wouldn’t change when talks broke off last month.
“At the end of the day,” he said at the time, “all I can do is play football. And that’s what I continue to do. I know my team. My team doesn’t care about the contract, you know? And I don’t either. I just want to be here for my teammates, play for my teammates and of course get these wins.”
And let’s not kid ourselves. Jefferson’s long-term negotiating position is unlikely to be affected by lower production that resulted from playing at less than 100% for a portion of this season.
But there are plenty of examples of players for whom a seemingly routine injury became chronic. Consider the Saints’ Michael Thomas, who suffered through three seasons of foot and ankle injuries 2020-22, altering his Hall of Fame trajectory, before returning to form this season.
As ESPN’s Adam Schefter suggested, Jefferson would have limited incentive to rush his return for a lost season. But that doesn’t mean he would sit out games if he were fully healthy.
Are we sure the Vikings want him back as soon as possible?
It’s true that every loss the Vikings suffer will put them closer to the top of the 2024 draft, where they could potentially select Cousins’ successor at quarterback. And it stands to reason that they have a better chance to lose without Jefferson than with him.
To this point, however, we have no evidence that the Vikings are ready to give up on their season. And it should be noted that although they’ve played the NFL’s ninth-most difficult schedule so far, according to ESPN Analytics data, their remaining schedule is the league’s ninth-easiest.
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